Unmoved by the Machine: Stability in Finnish Adolescents' Work-Life Expectations Through the Generative-AI Transition, 2021-2026.

Autor/in	Merilehto, Juhani
Titel	Unmoved by the Machine: Stability in Finnish Adolescents' Work-Life Expectations Through the Generative-AI Transition, 2021-2026. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Unbeeindruckt von der Maschine: Stabilität in den Erwartungen finnischer Jugendlicher an das Arbeitsleben während des Übergangs zur generativen KI, 2021-2026.
Quelle	(2026), 9 S. PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	SocArXiv papers
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monografie
DOI	10.31235/osf.io/5kr6q_v1
Schlagwörter	Zukunftsperspektive; Wahrnehmung; Künstliche Intelligenz; Schüler; Automatisierung; Beschäftigungseffekt; Arbeit; Arbeitsmarktchance; Berufserwartung; Berufsinteresse; Berufswunsch; Arbeitspapier; Auswirkung; Zukunft; Jugendlicher; Finnland
Abstract	"The public release of ChatGPT in November 2022 and the subsequent escalation of futureof-work discourse have been accompanied by forecasts that a large share of cognitive workis exposed to large language models. If adolescents form occupational expectations partly inresponse to the perceived future of work, this period should register as a shock to those expectations. Using seven annual waves of a large repeated cross-sectional survey of Finnishlower- and upper-secondary students (the Nuorten tulevaisuusraportti; 20202026, n ~ 4,9006,400 per wave; the core work-expectationbattery is observed from 2021), we document theopposite: aggregate work-life self-expectations are remarkably stable across the generative-AItransition. Belief in nding one's place in working life moved within an eight-point band (6876%) across the observed 20212026 waves; eagerness for working life and felt occupationalcompetence were e ectively at; the ranking of attractive elds was nearly unchanged. Thefew genuine movements a slow rise in entrepreneurial openness and a pre-2022 rise in workaversion predate or run orthogonal to the AI shock. We interpret this stability through threeconverging mechanisms documented elsewhere: the historical stickiness of teenage aspirations, an invulnerability bias by which disruption is attributed to others' jobs rather than one's own, and the muted realized labour-market e ects of generative AI through 20242025. The claimthroughout concerns aggregate measured expectations, not subjective AI awareness or anxiety.The nding is descriptive, not causal: the instrument was not designed to measure AI, andwithin-wave subgroup gaps dwarf any temporal drift. We argue the null is nonetheless informative for debates that assume youth expectations track technological headlines." The study refers to the period 2021-2026 (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2026/4