Convergence and divergence: from life-course trajectories to age 50 to projections of gendered old-age income inequality in Germany.

Autor/in	Vecgaile, Linda
Institution	Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung
Titel	Convergence and divergence: from life-course trajectories to age 50 to projections of gendered old-age income inequality in Germany. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Konvergenz und Divergenz: Von Lebensverläufen bis zum 50. Lebensjahr zu Prognosen zur geschlechtsspezifischen Einkommensungleichheit im Alter in Deutschland.
Quelle	Rostock (2026), 106 S. PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	MPIDR working paper / Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. 2026-032
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monografie
DOI	10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2026-032
Schlagwörter	Soziale Ungleichheit; Mutter; Frau; Altersversorgung; Einkommensunterschied; Einkommen; Einkommenserwartung; Einkommenshöhe; Einkommensverteilung; Berufsverlauf; Qualifikation; Rentenanspruch; Alter; Arbeitspapier; Auswirkung; Geschlechtsspezifik; Lebenslauf; Nivellierung; Regionaler Vergleich; Alter Mensch; Mann; Deutschland; Ostdeutschland; Westdeutschland
Abstract	"Existing research shows that gender gaps in old-age income have been large but are expected to narrow as women's employment and education increase. Yet aggregate trends obscure how increasingly diverse work-family trajectories shape retirement income. This study provides cohort-specific projections of gendered old-age income in Germany by combining life-course data from the SOEP Panel with a random forest model. Old-age income is projected for cohorts born 1953-1972 from work-family histories observed up to age 50, and inequalities are traced across subgroups defined by region, education, and parenthood, both between and within gender. The results partly confirm, but also qualify, expectations of gender convergence. In the aggregate, women's old-age income is projected to grow faster than men's, so gender gaps narrow but remain sizeable for cohorts born up to the early 1970s. Beneath these averages, patterns diverge. Gender gaps remain large among West German parents, especially lower educated mothers, and are much smaller among East Germans, non-parents, and the highly educated, where some younger cohorts approach parity. Within-gender inequality also diverges: disparities among women tend to shrink, whereas among men, persistent East-West and education gradients dominate. Future old-age income will thus reflect intersecting stratification rather than a uniform path toward gender equality." The study refers to the period 1984-2022 (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2026/4