The timing of poverty prevention: how early can women's near-retirement poverty risk be detected?

Autor/in	Vecgaile, Linda
Institution	Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung
Titel	The timing of poverty prevention: how early can women's near-retirement poverty risk be detected? Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Der richtige Zeitpunkt für die Armutsprävention: Wie früh lässt sich das Risiko von Armut bei Frauen kurz vor dem Ruhestand erkennen?
Quelle	Rostock (2026), 45 S. PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (1); PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (2) Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	MPIDR working paper / Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. 2026-031
Beigaben	Anhang
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monografie
DOI	10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2026-031
Schlagwörter	Frau; Gesundheitszustand; Armut; Partizipation; Wohlfahrtsstaat; Arbeitslosigkeit; Berufsverlauf; Erwerbstätiger; Individuelle Arbeitszeit; Qualifikation; Weiterbildung; Internationaler Vergleich; Arbeitspapier; Auswirkung; Familienstand; Lebenslauf; Persistenz; Prognose; Risiko; Risikoabschätzung; Institution; Älterer Arbeitnehmer; Deutschland; Großbritannien
Abstract	"Public agencies concerned with women's poverty near retirement often have limited capacity for continuous monitoring and support, making it important to know when late-career risk becomes most visible. Yet research offers limited guidance on whether such risk is spread evenly across late career or concentrated at specific ages. This paper analyzes women's age-55-to-59 sequences to predict poverty risk at ages 60 to 62 in Germany and the United Kingdom. It distinguishes future poverty entry from persistent poverty and identifies the age windows and life domains that carry the strongest predictive information. The findings show that predictive information is temporally concentrated rather than diffuse. For UK women at risk of future poverty entry, signal is already visible at age 55, and waiting adds little to ranking performance. For German women, age 55 is also informative, but prediction improves as later years reveal whether disadvantage persists. Persistent poverty shows the sharpest country contrast: it is difficult to distinguish among UK women using the measured late-career sequence, but much more visible among German women. These patterns indicate that welfare-state context shapes when disadvantage becomes legible as later poverty risk. For policy, the findings identify when targeted review, outreach, or escalation is likely to be most informative under limited administrative capacity, and clarify what is lost when agencies wait for more information." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2026/4