Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Autor/inn/en	Dräger, Lena; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
Titel	Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Politische Schocks und Inflationserwartungen: Beweise für die russische Invasion in der Ukraine im Jahr 2022.
Quelle	In: Journal of international economics, (2025) 153, 16 S. PDF als Volltext Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0022-1996
DOI	10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029
Schlagwörter	Erwartung; Krieg; Politikberatung; Politische Einstellung; Geldpolitik; Inflation; Hochschullehrer; Auswirkung; Bekämpfung; Prognose; Ursache; Wirtschaftswissenschaftler; Deutschland; Russland; Ukraine
Abstract	"How do global supply-side shocks influence macroeconomic expectations? We exploit the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock, which translated into a momentous supply-side shock, on inflation expectations. Collecting a unique survey among tenured economics professors in Germany, we find sizable effects on inflation expectations and monetary policy recommendations. A comparison with a representative sample of households shows that experts' expectations adjust faster and to a larger degree to the shock. Text analyses on open-ended questions reveal that the effects are caused by supply-side models underlying experts' formation of expectations." The study refers to the period 2022-2026 (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2025/3