The Evolution of Unobserved Skill Returns in the U.S.: A New Approach Using Panel Data.

Autor/inn/en	Lochner, Lance; Park, Youngmin; Shin, Youngki
Institution	National Bureau of Economic Research
Titel	The Evolution of Unobserved Skill Returns in the U.S.: A New Approach Using Panel Data. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Die Entwicklung unbeobachteter Qualifikationsrenditen in den U.S.A.: Ein neuer Ansatz mit Paneldaten.
Quelle	Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research (2025), 59 S. PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research. 33407
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monografie
Schlagwörter	Soziale Ungleichheit; Bildungsertrag; Einkommensunterschied; Einkommensverteilung; Lohnentwicklung; Lohnstruktur; Erwerbstätiger; Qualifikation; Arbeitspapier; Entwicklung; USA
Abstract	"Economists disagree about the factors driving the substantial increase in residual wage inequality in the US over the past few decades. To identify changes in the returns to unobserved skills, we make a novel assumption about the dynamics of skills rather than about the stability of skill distributions across cohorts, as is standard. We show that our assumption is supported by data on test score dynamics for older workers in the HRS. Using survey data from the PSID and administrative data from the IRS and SSA, we estimate that the returns to unobserved skills declined substantially in the late-1980s and 1990s despite an increase in residual inequality. Accounting for firm-specific pay differences yields similar results. Extending our framework to consider occupational differences in returns to skill and multiple unobserved skills, we further show that skill returns display similar patterns for workers employed in each of cognitive, routine, and social occupations. Finally, our results suggest that increasing skill dispersion, driven by rising skill volatility, explains most of the growth in residual wage inequality since the 1980s." The study refers to the period 1970-2012 (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2025/3