Children's Understanding of Posterior Probability

Autor/inn/en	Girotto, Vittorio; Gonzalez, Michael
Titel	Children's Understanding of Posterior Probability
Quelle	In: Cognition, 106 (2008) 1, S.325-344 (20 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0010-0277
DOI	10.1016/j.cognition.2007.02.005
Schlagwörter	Young Children; Probability; Comprehension; Cognitive Processes; Decision Making; Thinking Skills + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Frühe Kindheit; Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung; Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie; Verstehen; Verständnis; Cognitive process; Kognitiver Prozess; Decision-making; Entscheidungsfindung; Denkfähigkeit
Abstract	Do young children have a basic intuition of posterior probability? Do they update their decisions and judgments in the light of new evidence? We hypothesized that they can do so extensionally, by considering and counting the various ways in which an event may or may not occur. The results reported in this paper showed that from the age of five, children's decisions under uncertainty (Study 1) and judgments about random outcomes (Study 2) are correctly affected by posterior information. From the same age, children correctly revise their decisions in situations in which they face a single, uncertain event, produced by an intentional agent (Study 3). The finding that young children have some understanding of posterior probability supports the theory of naive extensional reasoning, and contravenes some pessimistic views of probabilistic reasoning, in particular the evolutionary claim that the human mind cannot deal with single-case probability. (Author).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2017/4/10