An Alternative Approach to the Total Probability Formula. Classroom Notes

Autor/inn/en	Wu, Dane W. Wu; Bangerter, Laura M.
Titel	An Alternative Approach to the Total Probability Formula. Classroom Notes
Quelle	In: International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, 35 (2004) 1, S.144-147 (4 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0020-739X
Schlagwörter	Quantitative Daten; Probability; Biology; Mathematical Formulas; Computation; Classroom Techniques; Problem Solving + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung; Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie; Biologie; Mathematische Formel; Klassenführung; Problemlösen
Abstract	Given a set of urns, each filled with a mix of black chips and white chips, what is the probability of drawing a black chip from the last urn after some sequential random shifts of chips among the urns? The Total Probability Formula (TPF) is the common tool to solve such a problem. However, when the number of urns is more than two and the number of shifted chips is not small, using the TPF becomes impractical or even impossible. This note presents a much simpler alternative formula to the TPF in dealing with the probability problem. As a byproduct, a recursive formula for computing the probabilities of sequential events is derived and a closed form of the recursive solution is also presented. These results could potentially be applied to estimating the demographic distribution of students after a chain of transfers as well as the biological studies of mutation. (Author).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2017/4/10