Grade Expectations: How Well Can Past Performance Predict Future Grades?

Autor/inn/en	Wyness, Gill; Macmillan, Lindsey; Anders, Jake; Dilnot, Catherine
Titel	Grade Expectations: How Well Can Past Performance Predict Future Grades?
Quelle	In: Education Economics, 31 (2023) 4, S.397-418 (22 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Zusatzinformation	ORCID (Wyness, Gill) ORCID (Macmillan, Lindsey) ORCID (Anders, Jake) ORCID (Dilnot, Catherine)
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0964-5292
DOI	10.1080/09645292.2022.2113861
Schlagwörter	Foreign Countries; Prediction; Grades (Scholastic); Expectation; Teacher Attitudes; Bias; Accuracy; Academic Achievement; Artificial Intelligence; Models; High Achievement; Low Income Students; Secondary School Students; Exit Examinations; United Kingdom + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Ausland; Vorhersage; Notenspiegel; Expectancy; Erwartung; Lehrerverhalten; Schulleistung; Künstliche Intelligenz; Analogiemodell; Sekundarschüler; Final examination; Abschlussprüfung; Großbritannien
Abstract	Students in the UK apply to university with teacher-predicted examination grades, rather than actual results. These predictions have been shown to be inaccurate, and to favour certain groups, leading to concerns about teacher bias. We ask whether it is possible to improve on the accuracy of teachers' predictions by predicting pupil achievement using prior attainment data and machine learning techniques. While our models do lead to a quantitative improvement on teacher predictions, substantial inaccuracies remain. Our models also underpredict high-achieving state school pupils and low socio-economic status pupils, suggesting they have more volatile education trajectories. This raises questions about the use of predictions in the UK system. (As Provided).
Anmerkungen	Routledge. Available from: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. 530 Walnut Street Suite 850, Philadelphia, PA 19106. Tel: 800-354-1420; Tel: 215-625-8900; Fax: 215-207-0050; Web site: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2024/1/01