From Green Revolution to Green Evolution: A Critique of the Political Myth of Averted Famine

Autor/inn/en	Pielke, Roger; Linnér, Björn-Ola
Titel	From Green Revolution to Green Evolution: A Critique of the Political Myth of Averted Famine
Quelle	In: Minerva: A Review of Science, Learning and Policy, 57 (2019) 3, S.265-291 (27 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Zusatzinformation	ORCID (Pielke, Roger)
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0026-4695
DOI	10.1007/s11024-019-09372-7
Schlagwörter	Misconceptions; Natural Disasters; Criticism; Conservation (Environment); Attribution Theory; Policy Analysis; Scientists; Prediction; Food; Technological Advancement; Agricultural Production; Political Attitudes; Sustainable Development; Correlation; Risk; Evidence + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Missverständnis; Natural disaster; Naturkatastrophe; Kritik; Conservation; Environment; Konservierung; Bewahung; Umwelt; Politikfeldanalyse; Scientist; Wissenschaftler; Vorhersage; Lebensmittel; Technological development; Technologische Entwicklung; Agriculture; Production; Landwirtschaft; Produktion; Agrarproduktion; Landwirtschaftliche Produktion; Political attitude; Politische Einstellung; Nachhaltige Entwicklung; Korrelation; Risiko; Evidenz
Abstract	This paper critiques the so-called "Green Revolution" as a political myth of averted famine. A "political myth," among other functions, reflects a narrative structure that characterizes understandings of causality between policy action and outcome. As such, the details of a particular political myth elevate certain policy options (and families of policy options) over others. One important narrative strand of the political myths of the Green Revolution is a story of averted famine: in the 1950s and 1960s, scientists predicted a global crisis to emerge in the 1970s and beyond, created by a rapidly growing global population that would cause global famine as food supplies would not keep up with demand. The narrative posits that an intense period of technological innovation in agricultural productivity led to increasing crop yields which led to more food being produced, and the predicted crisis thus being averted. The fact that the world did not experience a global famine in the 1970s is cited as evidence in support of the narrative. Political myths need not necessarily be supported by evidence, but to the extent that they shape understandings of cause and effect in policymaking, political myths which are not grounded in evidence risk misleading policymakers and the public. We argue a political myth of the Green Revolution focused on averted famine is not well grounded in evidence and thus has potential to mislead to the extent it guides thinking and action related to technological innovation. We recommend an alternative narrative: The Green Evolution, in which sustainable improvements in agricultural productivity did not necessarily avert a global famine, but nonetheless profoundly shaped the modern world. More broadly, we argue that one of the key functions of the practice of technology assessment is to critique and to help create the political myths that preserve an evidence-grounded basis for connecting the cause and effect of policy action and practical outcomes. (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2020/1/01