Literaturnachweis - Detailanzeige
| Autor/inn/en | Iverson, Geoffrey J.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Lee, Michael D. |
|---|---|
| Titel | A Model-Averaging Approach to Replication : The Case of "p[subscript rep]" |
| Quelle | In: Psychological Methods, 15 (2010) 2, S.172-181 (10 Seiten)
PDF als Volltext |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Dokumenttyp | gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz |
| ISSN | 1082-989X |
| DOI | 10.1037/a0017182 |
| Schlagwörter | Effect Size; Evaluation Methods; Probability; Experiments; Reliability; Experimental Psychology; Replication (Evaluation); Evaluation Research; Evaluation Problems; Misconceptions; Bayesian Statistics; Hypothesis Testing; Predictive Measurement; Measurement Techniques; Models; Statistical Inference; Priming |
| Abstract | The purpose of the recently proposed "p[subscript rep]" statistic is to estimate the probability of concurrence, that is, the probability that a replicate experiment yields an effect of the same sign (Killeen, 2005a). The influential journal "Psychological Science" endorses "p[subscript rep]" and recommends its use over that of traditional methods. Here we show that "p[subscript rep]" overestimates the probability of concurrence. This is because "p[subscript rep]" was derived under the assumption that all effect sizes in the population are equally likely a priori. In many situations, however, it is advisable also to entertain a null hypothesis of no or approximately no effect. We show how the posterior probability of the null hypothesis is sensitive to a priori considerations and to the evidence provided by the data; and the higher the posterior probability of the null hypothesis, the smaller the probability of concurrence. When the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis are equally likely a priori, "p[subscript rep]" may overestimate the probability of concurrence by 30% and more. We conclude that "p[subscript rep]" provides an upper bound on the probability of concurrence, a bound that brings with it the danger of having researchers believe that their experimental effects are much more reliable than they actually are. (Contains 4 footnotes and 2 figures.) (As Provided). |
| Anmerkungen | American Psychological Association. Journals Department, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002-4242. Tel: 800-374-2721; Tel: 202-336-5510; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail: order@apa.org; Web site: http://www.apa.org/publications |
| Erfasst von | ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC |
| Update | 2017/4/10 |
Literaturbeschaffung und Bestandsnachweise in Bibliotheken prüfen
Permalink als QR-Code
Inhalt auf sozialen Plattformen teilen (nur vorhanden, wenn Javascript eingeschaltet ist)
Teile diese Seite:
