Speeding Up or Slowing Down? Analysis of Race Results in Elite-Level Swimming from 2011-2019 to Predict Future Olympic Games Performances

Autor/inn/en	Crowley, Emmet; Ng, Kwok; Mujika, Iñigo; Powell, Cormac
Titel	Speeding Up or Slowing Down? Analysis of Race Results in Elite-Level Swimming from 2011-2019 to Predict Future Olympic Games Performances
Quelle	In: Measurement in Physical Education and Exercise Science, 26 (2022) 2, S.130-140 (11 Seiten) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Zusatzinformation	ORCID (Crowley, Emmet) ORCID (Ng, Kwok) ORCID (Mujika, Iñigo) ORCID (Powell, Cormac)
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	1091-367X
DOI	10.1080/1091367X.2021.1952592
Schlagwörter	Athletics; Athletes; Aquatic Sports; Performance; Gender Differences; Trend Analysis; Prediction + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Leichtathletik; Athlet; Water sports; Water sport; Wassersport; Achievement; Leistung; Geschlechterkonflikt; Trendanalyse; Vorhersage
Abstract	The aim of this study was to examine the trends in Olympic Games (OLY) and World Long Course Championships (WLC) across three performance categories (1st-3rd, 4th-8th and 9th-16th), and to make predictions for the 2024 OLY. Top 16 rankings were obtained for all OLY and WLC competitions between 2011 and 2019. Linear regression and forecasting models were used to examine trends and predictions. A total of 3,061 individual race results were included. For both genders, significant changes were observed in 13 of 14 Olympic events, with most changes highlighting those events have improved (mean: -0.72% (± 0.81%) for Men; -0.60% (± 0.81%) for Women). For the 2024 predictions, events fall into five groups: improving; declining; converging; diverging; and stable. These results offer insights about trends in times required to be a semi-finalist, finalist, and medalist. This, coupled with the 2024 predictions, may allow high-performance programs to target specific OLY events. (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2024/1/01