Comprehensive Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the University Entrance Score in Hungary

Autor/inn/en	Nagy, Marcell; Molontay, Roland
Titel	Comprehensive Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the University Entrance Score in Hungary
Quelle	In: Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education, 46 (2021) 8, S.1235-1253 (20 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Zusatzinformation	ORCID (Nagy, Marcell) ORCID (Molontay, Roland)
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0260-2938
DOI	10.1080/02602938.2021.1871725
Schlagwörter	Predictive Validity; College Entrance Examinations; Scores; Foreign Countries; Academic Achievement; Undergraduate Students; Regression (Statistics); Hungary (Budapest) + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Aufnahmeprüfung; Ausland; Schulleistung; Regression; Regressionsanalyse
Abstract	An important problem in higher education is to find the most suitable admission procedure that can distinguish between students with high academic potential and future dropouts. Admissions usually rely on pre-enrolment achievement measures; therefore, it is crucial that these selection criteria have high predictive validity on academic achievement. In this study, we use sophisticated statistical learning methods, such as receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, logistic and Tobit regression to analyse the predictive validity of the Hungarian university entrance score on final university performance, in particular on degree completion and qualification. We place particular emphasis on drawing statistically grounded conclusions. The analysis is built on data of 21,547 undergraduate students from the Budapest University of Technology and Economics. We find that the current Hungarian centralised entrance score is a valid predictor, however, its predictive validity varies significantly across disciplines. We find that high school grades have strong predictive validity, and general knowledge is more important than program-specific knowledge. We also find that the academic performance of females is underpredicted and that of the males is overpredicted by the university entrance score. (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2024/1/01