Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

Autor/inn/en	Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.
Titel	Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices
Quelle	In: International Journal of Environmental and Science Education, 11 (2016) 16, S.9191-9205 (15 Seiten) PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	1306-3065
Schlagwörter	Foreign Countries; Economics; Models; Prediction; Macroeconomics; Social Indicators; Research Methodology; Regression (Statistics); Equations (Mathematics); Accuracy; Statistical Analysis; Russia + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Ausland; Volkswirtschaftslehre; Analogiemodell; Vorhersage; Makroökonomie; Social indicator; Sozialer Indikator; Research method; Forschungsmethode; Regression; Regressionsanalyse; Equations; Mathematics; Gleichungslehre; Statistische Analyse; Russland
Abstract	The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices development in the past and their cause and effect interrelations. The aim of the article is to build econometric models for macroeconomic indices forecasting, reflecting Russia's economy stabilization processes. In the process of research econometric modeling methods were used which allow to build, estimate and control the quality of various econometric models. In the given research the following models were built and analyzed: autoregressive integrated moving average model, vector auto-regression model, simultaneous equations system; the comparison of forecast possibilities and forecast accuracy of models built; forecast values of considered macroeconomic indices for the next periods were received. As to the results of study some preference can be given to forecasting on the basis of autoregressive models. The materials of the article can be quite useful for researchers, dealing with problems of modeling and economic processes forecasting, both in their scientific and practical activity. (As Provided).
Anmerkungen	LOOK Academic Publishers. Knobbelzwaansingel 211 Den Haag 2496LN, Netherlands. Tel: 31-20-217-0912; e-mail: editor@lookacademy.nl; Web site: http://www.ijese.net
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2020/1/01