The Keys to the White House: Prediction for 2012

Autor/in	Lichtman, Allan
Titel	The Keys to the White House: Prediction for 2012
Quelle	In: Social Education, 76 (2012) 2, S.57-61 (5 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0037-7724
Schlagwörter	Political Campaigns; Presidents; Elections; Economic Development; Economic Progress; Predictive Validity; Predictive Measurement; Predictor Variables; Prediction; Models + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? President; Präsident; Election; Wahl; Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Economic growth; Wirtschaftswachstum; Prädiktor; Vorhersage; Analogiemodell
Abstract	Conventional pundits, pollsters, and forecasters are focused on whether the economy will improve sufficiently in 2012 for President Barack Obama to gain reelection. The Keys to the White House, a prediction system that the author developed in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, founder of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, provides a different view of this year's presidential election. In what may be the sternest test of the system to date, given high unemployment and sluggish economic growth, the Keys point to an Obama victory, regardless of the state of the economy in 2012. The Keys are 13 diagnostic questions that are stated as propositions that favor re-election of the incumbent party. The Keys to the White House demonstrate that the American electorate chooses a president according to the performance of the party holding the White House as measured by the consequential events and episodes of a term. (Contains 3 tables.) (ERIC).
Anmerkungen	National Council for the Social Studies. 8555 Sixteenth Street #500, Silver Spring, MD 20910. Tel: 800-683-0812; Tel: 301-588-1800; Fax: 301-588-2049; e-mail: membership@ncss.org; Web site: http://www.socialstudies.org
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2017/4/10