Using Simulation to Analyze Interrupted Time Series Designs

Autor/in	Miratrix, Luke W.
Titel	Using Simulation to Analyze Interrupted Time Series Designs
Quelle	46 (2022) 6, S.750-778 (30 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Zusatzinformation	ORCID (Miratrix, Luke W.) Weitere Informationen
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Schlagwörter	Causal Models; Case Studies; Quasiexperimental Design; Monte Carlo Methods; Statistical Inference; Regression (Statistics) + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Kausalanalyse; Case study; Fallstudie; Case Study; Monte-Carlo-Methode; Inferential statistics; Schließende Statistik; Regression; Regressionsanalyse
Abstract	We are sometimes forced to use the Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design as an identification strategy for potential policy change, such as when we only have a single treated unit and cannot obtain comparable controls. For example, with recent county- and state-wide criminal justice reform efforts, where judicial bodies have changed bail setting practices for everyone in their jurisdiction in order to reduce rates of pre-trial detention while maintaining court order and public safety, we have no natural and available comparison group other than the past. In these contexts, it is imperative to model pre-policy trends with a light touch, allowing for structures such as autoregressive departures from any pre-existing trend, in order to accurately and realistically assess the uncertainty of our projections. We aim to provide a methodological approach rooted in commonly understood and used modeling tools to achieve this. We quantify uncertainty with simulation, generating a distribution of plausible counterfactual trajectories to compare to the observed; this approach naturally allows for incorporating seasonality and other time-varying covariates, and provides confidence intervals along with point estimates for the potential impacts of policy change. We find simulation provides a natural framework to capture and show uncertainty in the ITS designs. It also allows for easy extensions such as nonparametric smoothing in order to handle multiple post-policy time points. (As Provided).
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2024/1/01