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| Autor/in | Morrison, James L. |
|---|---|
| Titel | A Futures Approach to Policy Analysis. |
| Quelle | (1986), (11 Seiten)
PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Dokumenttyp | gedruckt; online; Monographie |
| Schlagwörter | Stellungnahme; Change Strategies; College Administration; College Planning; Futures (of Society); Higher Education; Policy Formation; Prediction; Trend Analysis |
| Abstract | An approach to policy analysis for college officials is described that is based on evaluating and using information about the external environment to consider policy options for the future. The futures approach involves the following tasks: establishing an environmental scanning system to identify critical trends and emerging issues, identifying and assessing the impact of critical trends and events, forecasting alternative scenarios of the future, developing policy options for each future based on an analysis of key events and trends within each scenario, and assessing the relative impact of each option across the range of alternative futures. Identifying alternative future environments helps to provide a realistic sense of the range of possibilities that may emerge in the future. Understanding the range enables policy analysts to better identify the features that may be common to all or many of the alternatives and thus likely to have an impact on the college no matter which alternative does occur. An alternative future is a narrative description or scenario that is based on and disciplined by the quantitative estimates derived through a process like the Delphi technique. (SW) |
| Erfasst von | ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC |
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