A Critical Look at the Cross Impact Matrix Method. A Research Report. [Report No.: EPRC-RR-5

Autor/in	Folk, Michael
Institution	Syracuse Univ. Research Corp., NY. Educational Policy Research Center.
Titel	A Critical Look at the Cross Impact Matrix Method. A Research Report. [Report No.: EPRC-RR-5
Quelle	(1971), (59 Seiten) PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei Verfügbarkeit
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Monographie
Schlagwörter	Decision Making; Educational Policy; Mathematical Models; Planning; Policy Formation; Prediction; Public Policy; Research Methodology; Research Tools; Simulation + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Decision-making; Entscheidungsfindung; Politics of education; Bildungspolitik; Mathematical model; Mathematisches Modell; Ablaufplanung; Planungsprozess; Politische Betätigung; Vorhersage; Öffentliche Ordnung; Research method; Forschungsmethode; Forschungsmittel; Simulation program; Simulationsprogramm
Abstract	This paper explains some of the problems with, and their importance to the application of, the Cross-Impact Matrix (CIM). The CIM is a research method designed to serve as a heuristic device to enhance a person's ability to think about the future and as an analytical device to be used by planners to help in actually forecasting future occurrences. The author makes no judgment about CIM's usefulness as a heuristic device; but he does fault it as an analytical methodology. He partitions the analytical problems into two categories: (1) theoretical -- including questions about underlying assumptions of the model, the meaning of inputs, the ability of experts to perceive accurately, and the ability of mathematics to handle the inputs; and (2) practical -- including invalid mathematical formulae and questionable use of simulation techniques. Related documents are EA 004 239 and EA 004 241. (Author/RA)
Anmerkungen	Syracuse University Research Corporation, Merrill Lane, University Heights, Syracuse, New York 13210
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2004/1/01