Productivity and Wages: What Was the Productivity-Wage Link in the Digital Revolution of the Past, and What Might Occur in the AI Revolution of the Future?

Autor/inn/en	Lazear, Edward; Shaw, Kathryn L.; Hayes, Grant E.; Jedras, James M.
Institution	National Bureau of Economic Research
Titel	Productivity and Wages: What Was the Productivity-Wage Link in the Digital Revolution of the Past, and What Might Occur in the AI Revolution of the Future? Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Produktivität und Löhne: Wie war der Zusammenhang zwischen Produktivität und Lohn in der digitalen Revolution der Vergangenheit und wie könnte er in der KI-Revolution der Zukunft aussehen?.
Quelle	Cambridge, Mass. (2022), 86 S. PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (1); PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (2) Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	NBER working paper. 30734
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monographie
Schlagwörter	Künstliche Intelligenz; Technologische Entwicklung; Einkommensunterschied; Beschäftigungseffekt; Einkommenseffekt; Lohnentwicklung; Produktivität; Produktivitätseffekt; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Arbeit; Arbeitsproduktivität; Niedrig Qualifizierter; Qualifikation; Internationaler Vergleich; Arbeitspapier; Auswirkung; Differenz; Einflussfaktor; Zukunft; OECD (Organisation für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung); Hoch Qualifizierter; USA
Abstract	"Wages have been spreading out across workers over time - or in other words, the 90th/50th wage ratio has risen over time. A key question is, has the productivity distribution also spread out across worker skill levels over time? Using our calculations of productivity by skill level for the U.S., we show that the distributions of both wages and productivity have spread out over time, as the right tail lengthens for both. We add OECD countries, showing that the wage-productivity correlation exists, such that gains in aggregate productivity, or GDP per person, have resulted in higher wages for workers at the top and bottom of the wage distribution. However, across countries, those workers in the upper income ranks have seen their wages rise the most over time. The most likely international factor explaining these wage increases is the skill-biased technological change of the digital revolution. The new AI revolution that has just begun seems to be having a similar skill-biased effects on wages. But this current AI, called "supervised learning," is relatively similar to past technological change. The AI of the distant future will be "unsupervised learning," and it could eventually have an effect on the jobs of the most highly skilled." The study refers to the period 1951-2019. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku)..
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2023/1