How to Predict the Economic Growth Rates of a Country? A DSGE Model with the Accumulation of Human Capital.

Autor/inn/en	Mu, Junlin; Yan, Lipeng
Titel	How to Predict the Economic Growth Rates of a Country? A DSGE Model with the Accumulation of Human Capital. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Wie man die Wirtschaftswachstumsraten eines Landes vorhersagt? Ein DSGE-Modell mit der Akkumulation von Humankapital.
Quelle	In: Applied economics letters, 30 (2022) 11, S. 1540-1560 PDF als Volltext Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	1466-4291
DOI	10.1080/13504851.2022.2069669
Schlagwörter	Akkumulation; China; Geldpolitik; Japan; Kapital; Prognose; Wettbewerbspolitik; Wirtschaftswachstum; USA; Humankapitaltheorie; Internationaler Vergleich; Prognosemodell; Finanzpolitik; Determinante; Humankapital; Prognostik; Genauigkeit; Determinante; Technologische Entwicklung; Humankapital; Finanzpolitik; Geldpolitik; Humankapitaltheorie; Kapital; Wettbewerbspolitik; Wirtschaftswachstum; Arbeitskräfteangebot; Internationaler Vergleich; Akkumulation; Genauigkeit; Prognose; Prognosemodell; Prognostik; China; Japan; USA
Abstract	"We propose an endogenous economic growth DSGE model based on human capital accumulation theory. Then we estimate the DSGE model by the Bayesian method, using the economic data of China, the USA, and Japan from 1996: Q1 to 2018: Q4. It is shown that the estimated models can accurately predict the economic growth rates of the three countries and can tightly fit the economic data of the three countries. Therefore, the model proposed can be employed to predict the economic growth of a typical country and to analyse the determinants of its economic growth in the short and long term. We find that levelling up technology in all fields is helpful for economic growth in the short term, and stimulating labour supply, mitigating monopoly in the goods market and labour market, and increasing the contribution of physical capital in goods production are helpful for economic growth in the long term." The study refers to the period 1996-2018. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2023/1