Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence?

Autor/inn/en	Alonso, Cristian; Berg, Andrew; Kothari, Siddharth; Papageorgiou, Chris; Rehman, Sidra
Institution	Internationaler Währungsfonds
Titel	Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence? Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Wird die KI-Revolution zu einer großen Spaltung führen?
Quelle	Washington, DC (2020), 42 S. PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (1); PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (2) Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	IMF working paper. 2020,184
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monographie
Schlagwörter	Künstliche Intelligenz; Substitution; Automatisierung; Roboter; Technologische Entwicklung; Einkommensunterschied; Entwicklungsland; Industriestaat; Beschäftigungseffekt; Produktivität; Produzierendes Gewerbe; Qualifikation; Internationaler Vergleich; Anwendung; Auswirkung; Effekt
Abstract	"This paper considers the implications for developing countries of a new wave of technological change that substitutes pervasively for labor. It makes simple and plausible assumptions: the AI revolution can be modeled as an increase in productivity of a distinct type of capital that substitutes closely with labor; and the only fundamental difference between the advanced and developing country is the level of TFP. This set-up is minimalist, but the resulting conclusions are powerful: improvements in the productivity of 'robots' drive divergence, as advanced countries differentially benefit from their initially higher robot intensity, driven by their endogenously higher wages and stock of complementary traditional capital. In addition, capital'if internationally mobile'is pulled 'uphill', resulting in a transitional GDP decline in the developing country. In an extended model where robots substitute only for unskilled labor, the terms of trade, and hence GDP, may decline permanently for the country relatively well-endowed in unskilled labor." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2021/3