Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors

Autor/inn/en	Meyvis, Tom; Ratner, Rebecca K.; Levav, Jonathan
Titel	Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors
Quelle	In: Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 139 (2010) 4, S.579-589 (11 Seiten) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0096-3445
DOI	10.1037/a0020285
Schlagwörter	Psychological Patterns; Prediction; Accuracy; Memory; Experience; Time Perspective; Adjustment (to Environment); Resilience (Psychology); Bias; Expectation; Evidence; Responses; Context Effect + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Vorhersage; Gedächtnis; Erfahrung; Zeitbezug; Expectancy; Erwartung; Evidenz
Abstract	Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent forecasts. In the context of a Super Bowl loss (Study 1), a presidential election (Studies 2 and 3), an important purchase (Study 4), and the consumption of candies (Study 5), individuals mispredicted their affective reactions to these experiences and subsequently misremembered their predictions as more accurate than they actually had been. The findings indicate that this recall error results from people's tendency to anchor on their current affective state when trying to recall their affective forecasts. Further, those who showed larger recall errors were less likely to learn to adjust their subsequent forecasts and reminding people of their actual forecasts enhanced learning. These results suggest that a failure to accurately recall one's past predictions contributes to the perpetuation of forecasting errors. (Contains 5 figures and 7 footnotes.) (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2017/4/10