Literaturnachweis - Detailanzeige
| Autor/inn/en | Gelman, Andrew; Hullman, Jessica; Wlezien, Christopher; Morris, George Elliott |
|---|---|
| Titel | Information, Incentives, and Goals in Election Forecasts |
| Quelle | 15 (2020) 5, S.863-880 (18 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift
PDF als Volltext (1); PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (2) |
| Zusatzinformation | Weitere Informationen |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Dokumenttyp | gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz |
| Schlagwörter | Presidents; Elections; Incentives; Public Opinion; Prediction; Periodicals; Political Attitudes; Economic Climate; Probability |
| Abstract | Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these "knowns" about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and communication. We highlight how incentives may shape forecasts, and particularly forecast uncertainty, in light of calibration challenges. We illustrate these challenges in creating, communicating, and evaluating election predictions, using the Economist and Fivethirtyeight forecasts of the 2020 election as examples, and offer recommendations for forecasters and scholars. (As Provided). |
| Erfasst von | ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC |
| Update | 2024/1/01 |
Literaturbeschaffung und Bestandsnachweise in Bibliotheken prüfen
Permalink als QR-Code
Inhalt auf sozialen Plattformen teilen (nur vorhanden, wenn Javascript eingeschaltet ist)
Teile diese Seite:
