Alternative Futures: Contexts in Which Social Indicators Must Work. Research Note. [Report No.: EPRC-6747-11

Autor/in	Markley, O. W.
Institution	Stanford Research Inst., Menlo Park, CA. Educational Policy Research Center.
Titel	Alternative Futures: Contexts in Which Social Indicators Must Work. Research Note. [Report No.: EPRC-6747-11
Quelle	(1971), (20 Seiten) PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei Verfügbarkeit
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Monographie
Schlagwörter	Decision Making; Educational Planning; Futures (of Society); Policy Formation; Prediction; Predictive Measurement; Research Methodology; Social Change; Social Indicators; Social Influences; Social Planning; Social Problems; Social Systems; Statistical Analysis; Systems Analysis + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Decision-making; Entscheidungsfindung; Bildungsplanung; Future; Society; Zukunft; Politische Betätigung; Vorhersage; Research method; Forschungsmethode; Sozialer Wandel; Social indicator; Sozialer Indikator; Sozialer Einfluss; Sozialplanung; Social problem; Soziales Problem; Social system; Soziales System; Statistische Analyse; System analysis; Systemanalyse
Abstract	No technique of forecasting exists with which a "single" future can be predicted accurately. We can, however, project a set of significantly different but quite plausible lines of future development, a set of alternative future histories, which we hope will bracket the one future that comes to be. Since social indicators are specifically designed to serve as bench marks with which to compare various aspects of society across time, it follows that the more important indicators need to be designed such that they could appropriately be used in each of the plausible futures. A morphological method for projecting such a set of alternative future histories is presented, and interim results described. Development of indicators relating both to what is defined as the world macroproblem and to human well-being and fulfillment are especially urged, as their use would help illuminate difficult problems that occur in all plausible future histories starting with the present. The alternative future histories are also used to illustrate how normative social indicators might be of practical value. (Author)
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2004/1/01