Literaturnachweis - Detailanzeige
Autor/in | Burns, Bruce D. |
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Titel | Heuristics as Beliefs and as Behaviors: The Adaptiveness of the ''Hot Hand'' |
Quelle | In: Cognitive Psychology, 48 (2004) 3, S.295-331 (37 Seiten)
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Sprache | englisch |
Dokumenttyp | gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz |
ISSN | 0010-0285 |
DOI | 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2003.07.003 |
Schlagwörter | Heuristics; Beliefs; Adjustment (to Environment); Markov Processes; Cues; Decision Making; Thinking Skills; Cognitive Psychology; Behavior; Simulation; Athletics |
Abstract | Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the ''hot hand'' in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies between players' shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness. (Author). |
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Erfasst von | ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC |
Update | 2017/4/10 |