Preschool Education Demand in China by 2035: A Prediction Analysis

Autor/inn/en	Hong, Xiumin; Zhang, Mingzhu; Liu, Qianqian; Zhong, Binglin; Li, Handong
Titel	Preschool Education Demand in China by 2035: A Prediction Analysis
Quelle	In: Early Education and Development, 33 (2022) 3, S.391-406 (16 Seiten) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Zusatzinformation	ORCID (Liu, Qianqian)
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	1040-9289
DOI	10.1080/10409289.2021.1943640
Schlagwörter	Foreign Countries; Futures (of Society); Preschool Education; Expenditures; Public Policy; Family Size; Population Trends; Educational Development; Enrollment Trends; Educational Resources; Supply and Demand; Preschool Children; Rural Areas; Urban Areas; Prediction; China + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Ausland; Future; Society; Zukunft; Pre-school education; Vorschulerziehung; Ausgaben; Öffentliche Ordnung; Familiengröße; Bevölkerungsprognose; Bildungsentwicklung; Bildungsmittel; Bedarfsplanung; Pre-school age; Preschool age; Child; Children; Preschool education; Vorschulalter; Kind; Kinder; Vorschulkind; Vorschulkinder; Vorschule; Rural area; Ländlicher Raum; Urban area; Stadtregion; Vorhersage
Abstract	Research Findings: The implementation of the universal two-child policy in China will first affect changes in the country's population, before influencing the scale of development of preschool education to meet the corresponding demand for educational resources. Using data from China's sixth census as the base-period data, this study applied the Leslie matrix to predict changes in the population aged 3-6 years, the number of children enrolled in preschool programs, and educational resource demand, including demand for preschool programs, educational personnel, and government expenditure, from 2021 to 2035 in China. The results indicated that, although the population aged 3-6 years and the number of children enrolled in preschool programs were predicted to show a downward trend from 2021 to 2035, the demand for preschool education resources was predicted to be higher than the available resources in 2019. To meet the predicted demand, more preschool resources will need be introduced in rural areas than in urban areas over the next 15 years. Practice or Policy: The findings have potential implications for policy makers formulating preschool education development and resource allocation from 2021 to 2035. (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2024/1/01