The Growing Importance of Decision-Making on the Job.

Autor/in	Deming, David J.
Institution	National Bureau of Economic Research
Titel	The Growing Importance of Decision-Making on the Job. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Die zunehmende Bedeutung der Entscheidungsfindung im Beruf.
Quelle	Cambridge, Mass. (2021), 55 S. PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	NBER working paper. 28733
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monographie
Schlagwörter	Erfahrungswissen; Entscheidung; Problemlösen; Einkommen; Entscheidung; Prognose; Tätigkeitsmerkmal; Problemlösen; USA; Auswirkung; Arbeitsanforderung; Berufserfahrung; Einkommensentwicklung; Lebenseinkommen; Qualifikationsanforderung; Schlüsselqualifikation; Genauigkeit; Erfahrungswissen; Bildungsertrag; Bildungsertrag; Arbeitsanforderung; Technologische Entwicklung; Einkommen; Einkommensentwicklung; Lebenseinkommen; Berufserfahrung; Qualifikationsanforderung; Schlüsselqualifikation; Tätigkeitsmerkmal; Tätigkeitswandel; Auswirkung; Genauigkeit; Prognose; USA
Abstract	"Machines increasingly replace people in routine job tasks. The remaining tasks require workers to make open-ended decisions and to have 'soft' skills such as problem-solving, critical thinking and adaptability. This paper documents growing demand for decision-making and explores the consequences for life-cycle earnings. Career earnings growth in the U.S. more than doubled between 1960 and 2017, and the age of peak earnings increased from the late 30s to the mid-50s. I show that a substantial share of this shift is explained by increased employment in decision-intensive occupations, which have longer and more gradual periods of earnings growth. To understand these patterns, I develop a model that nests decision-making in a standard human capital framework. Workers predict the output of uncertain, context-dependent actions. Experience reduces prediction error, improving a worker's ability to adapt using data from similar decisions they have made in the past. Experience takes longer to accumulate in high variance, non-routine jobs. I test the predictions of the model using data from the three waves of the NLS. Life-cycle wage growth in decision-intensive occupations has increased over time, and it has increased relatively more for highly-skilled workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2021/4