Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

Autor/inn/en	Dräger, Lena; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
Institution	CESifo GmbH
Titel	Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Politische Schocks und Inflationserwartungen: Beweise für die russische Invasion in der Ukraine im Jahr 2022.
Quelle	München (2022), 47 S. PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (1); PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (2) Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	CESifo working paper. 9649
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monographie
Schlagwörter	Erwartung; Krieg; Politikberatung; Politische Einstellung; Geldpolitik; Inflation; Hochschullehrer; Auswirkung; Bekämpfung; Prognose; Ursache; Wirtschaftswissenschaftler; Russland; Ukraine
Abstract	"How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock on expectations about national inflation rates. We find that the Russian invasion increased short-run inflation expectations for 2022 by 0.75 percentage points. Treatment effects are smaller regarding mid-term expectations for 2023 (0.47 percentage points) and are close to zero for longer periods. Text analysis of open questions shows that experts increase their inflation expectations because they expect supply-side effects to become increasingly important after the invasion. Moreover, experts in the treatment group are less likely to favour an immediate reaction of monetary policy to the increased inflation, which gives further evidence of the shock being interpreted primarily as a supply-side shock." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2022/3