Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-college Periods. New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations.

Autor/inn/en	Crossley, Thomas F.; Gong, Yifan; Stinebrickner, Todd R.; Stinebrickner, Ralph
Institution	National Bureau of Economic Research
Titel	Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-college Periods. New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations.
Quelle	Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research (2021) PDF als Volltext (1); PDF als Volltext (2) Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	NBER working paper series. w28353
Beigaben	Illustrationen
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monographie; Graue Literatur
DOI	10.3386/w28353
Schlagwörter	Erwartung; Rationalität; Einkommenserwartung; Hochschule; Arbeitspapier; Haushaltseinkommen; Absolvent; Student; USA
Abstract	Unique longitudinal probabilistic expectations data from the Berea Panel Study, which cover both the college and early post-college periods, are used to examine young adults' beliefs about their future incomes. We introduce a new measure of the ex post accuracy of beliefs, and two new approaches to testing whether, ex ante, agents exhibit Rational Expectations. We show that taking into account the additional information about higher moments of individual belief distributions contained in probabilistic expectations data is important for detecting types of violations of Rational Expectations that are not detectable by existing mean-based tests. Beliefs about future income are found to become more accurate as students progress through school and then enter the post-college period. Tests of Rational Expectations almost always reject for the in-school period, but the evidence against Rational Expectations is much weaker in the post-college period.
Erfasst von	ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Kiel
Update	2021/3