Short-run pain, long-run gain? Recessions and technological transformation.

Autor/inn/en	Kopytow, Alexandr; Roussanov, Nikolai; Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu
Institution	National Bureau of Economic Research
Titel	Short-run pain, long-run gain? Recessions and technological transformation. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Ein kurzer Schmerz, auf lange Sicht aber ein Gewinn? Rezessionen und technologischer Wandel.
Quelle	Cambrige, Mass. (2018), 38 S. PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	NBER working paper. 24373
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monographie
DOI	10.3386/w24373
Schlagwörter	Konjunktur; Konjunkturzyklus; USA; Rezession; Technologische Entwicklung; Konjunktur; Konjunkturzyklus; Rezession; Niedrig qualifizierte Arbeit; Niedrig Qualifizierter; Qualifikationsanpassung; Qualifikationsbedarf; Qualifikationswandel; Dequalifizierung; Manuelle Arbeit; Hoch Qualifizierter; USA
Abstract	"Recent empirical evidence suggests that job polarization associated with skill-biased technological change accelerated during the Great Recession. We use a standard neoclassical growth framework to analyze how business cycle fluctuations interact with the long-run transition towards a skill-intensive technology. In the model, since adopting the new technology disrupts production, firms prefer to do so in recessions, when profits are low. Similarly, workers also tend to learn new skills during downturns. As a result, recessions are deeper during periods of technological transition, but they also speed up adoption of the new technology. We document evidence for these mechanisms in the data. Our calibrated model is able to match both the long-run downward trend in routine employment and the dramatic impact of the Great Recession. We also show that even in the absence of the Great Recession the routine employment share would have reached the observed level by the year 2012." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2018/3