The role of uncertainty in forecasting employment by skill and industry.

Autor/inn/en	Sakutukwa, Tutsirai; Yang, Hee-Seung
Titel	The role of uncertainty in forecasting employment by skill and industry. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Die Rolle der Unsicherheit in Beschäftigungsprognosen für Qualifikationen und Wirtschaftszweige.
Quelle	In: Applied economics letters, 25 (2018) 18, S. 1288-1291 PDF als Volltext Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; gedruckt; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	1350-4851; 1466-4291
DOI	10.1080/13504851.2017.1418069
Schlagwörter	Unsicherheit; Arbeitsmarktpolitik; Niedrig Qualifizierter; Qualifikation; Qualifikationsanforderung; Prognose; Hoch Qualifizierter; USA
Abstract	"We show that the macroeconomic uncertainty series from Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015) contains information to forecast employment. The results indicate that the uncertainty measure is weak at forecasting the skilled labour but significantly carries forecasting information on the unskilled labour. The forecasting information increases if the sample is restricted to construction and manufacturing industries. Using rolling regressions to conduct a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the uncertainty measure contains forecasting information for the unskilled labour in those industries for two quarters ahead. By providing detailed information about the forecasting power of uncertainty by skill and industry, this study will be helpful in designing more efficient labour market policies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2018/2