Mismatch and the forecasting performance of matching functions.

Autor/inn/en	Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo
Titel	Mismatch and the forecasting performance of matching functions. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Mismatch und die Prognoseleistung von Matchingfunktionen.
Quelle	In: Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, 79 (2017) 1, S. 101-123 PDF als Volltext Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0305-9049; 1468-0084
DOI	10.1111/obes.12142
Schlagwörter	Region; Regionale Disparität; Mismatch; Arbeitslosigkeit; Arbeitsmarkt; Arbeitsmarktentwicklung; Arbeitsplatzangebot; Arbeitsuchender; Berufsanforderung; Berufsstruktur; Qualifikationsanforderung; Qualifikationsstruktur; Genauigkeit; Prognose
Abstract	"This paper investigates the role of structural imbalance between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labour market matching function. Starting from a Cobb-Douglas matching function with constant returns to scale (CRS) in each frictional micro market shows that on the aggregate level, a measure of mismatch is a crucial ingredient of the matching function and hence should not be ignored for forecasting hiring figures. Consequently, we allow the matching process to depend on the level of regional, qualificatory and occupational mismatch between unemployed and vacancies. In pseudo out-of-sample tests that account for the nested model environment, we find that forecasting models enhanced by a measure of mismatch significantly outperform their benchmark counterparts for all forecast horizons ranging between one month and a year. This is especially pronounced during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession where a low level of mismatch improved the possibility of unemployed to find a job again. The results show that imposing CRS helps improve forecast accuracy compared to unrestricted models." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2017/1